Europe faces 22,000 km subsea cable shortfall by 2040

• 17 June 2026
• Corporate, Government, Grid
• TGS | 4C

Europe could face an increasing shortfall of more than 22,000 km of high-voltage subsea cable capacity between 2026 and 2040, creating challenges for offshore wind and transmission projects.

TGS | 4C analysis assesses the feasibility of delivering the Hamburg Declaration’s target of up to 100 GW of cross-border offshore wind capacity in the North Sea by 2050. Signed by nine countries in January 2026, the framework aims to expand offshore wind, hybrid assets and interconnector infrastructure.

The study highlights growing pressure on the subsea cable supply chain as deployment accelerates. Europe could face an annual shortfall of up to 27% for cables above 132 kV. Long lead times of four to six years from investment to commissioning limit near-term capacity growth and increase the risk of project delays.

Market dynamics show a strong regional preference for local suppliers, with European manufacturers securing around 91% of contracts. Interconnector projects also face extended timelines, averaging 13.3 years from planning to commissioning.

“The Hamburg Declaration represents one of the most ambitious offshore energy initiatives currently being pursued in Europe,” said Rameeza Haq Duggal, Principal Analyst and lead author.

To access more information on subsea cables for offshore wind and interconnector projects, as well as transmission intelligence, click here.